Arkansas vs. Missouri odds, spread, line: 2021 college football picks, Week 13 predictions from proven model

The No. 25 Arkansas Razorbacks host the Missouri Tigers in an SEC on CBS matchup on Friday. The series has become known as the Battle Line Rivalry, with two schools located in bordering states. The teams first faced off in 1906 but met just five more times before the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012. Missouri (6-5) has won nine of the 12 meetings and is coming off a 24-23 overtime victory against Florida last Saturday. The Razorbacks (7-4) have played six ranked teams this season, including No. 2 Alabama last Saturday. They rallied in the fourth quarter but came up short in a 42-35 loss to the Crimson Tide.

Kickoff from Razorback Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Razorbacks are the 14.5-point favorites in the latest Missouri vs. Arkansas odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 62.5. Before making any Arkansas vs. Missouri picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Missouri vs. Arkansas and just released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines and trends for Arkansas vs. Missouri:  

  • Missouri vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas -14.5  
  • Missouri vs. Arkansas over-under: 62.5 points 
  • Missouri vs. Arkansas moneyline: Missouri +450, Arkansas -650
  • MISS: It is 8-13 ATS over the past two seasons 
  • ARK: It is 13-7-1 ATS since the start of last season

Featured Game | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers

Why the Razorbacks can cover

The home team is 9-1 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. Arkansas has won half the games it has played against ranked teams, beating Texas, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Its losses are to top-ranked Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, No. 8 Ole Miss and Auburn. Missouri should offer a far lesser challenge, and Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson is a star. He threw for 326 yards and three TDs last week to give him 2,316 and 20 this season. Jefferson has a big-time weapon in receiver Treylon Burks, who has 975 yards (16.5 per reception) and 10 TDs. 

Jefferson also has 496 rushing yards, with five more scores. He is one of four Razorbacks with at least 475 rushing yards, along with Trelon Smith (555, four TDs), Dominique Johnson (479, seven) and Raheim Sanders (478, one). They will face a Mizzou defense that allows 34.7 points per game (118th in FBS) and ranks 125th in the nation against the run (235.3 yards per game). Arkansas is 6-4-1 ATS this season, and it is plus-5 in turnover margin, getting 13 takeaways. Cornerback Montaric Brown has four interceptions, and end Tre Williams has six sacks.   

Why the Tigers can cover

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the teams’ last five meetings. Missouri has won five straight matchups, including a 50-48 thriller last season in Columbia. The Tigers scored 27 points in the fourth quarter, and the teams combined for more than 1,200 yards, with almost half of that coming on the ground. Running back Tyler Badie was a backup last season but rushed for 79 on just six carries in that game, and he is the star of the show this year. He has 1,720 yards from scrimmage, ranking fourth in FBS with 1,385 on the ground, and has accounted for 17 TDs.  

Badie rushed for 355 yards in victories against Florida and South Carolina the past two weeks and has topped 200 yards four times this season. Sophomore quarterback Connor Bazelak is completing more than 67 percent of his passes and has 16 TD passes. He has been sacked just 13 times (five of them last week) but has 10 interceptions. While the Mizzou defense gives up a lot of yardage, it also has 16 takeaways, including 11 interceptions. Jaylon Carlies has four of those picks, while fellow safety Martez Manuel has a team-high 70 tackles and 3.5 sacks.    

How to make Missouri vs. Arkansas picks

The model is going under on the total, projecting 60 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s Arkansas vs. Missouri pick at SportsLine

So who wins Friday’s Missouri vs. Arkansas matchup? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Arkansas vs. Missouri spread to back Friday, all from the advanced model on a 39-25 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.

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